I have long been reporting here that the impact of Climate Change will happen much faster and be more dramatic than most people believe. I have not ever done this to be alarmist, nor have I ever exaggerated the impacts as I have always based my postings on the science and the data of credible climate modelling.
Often the researchers who are compiling the data and the analysing the results self censor the results, publishing only the lowest range of effects, normally the temperature range, that matches with the data that others are generating. Not least because any scientist that wants to keep their reputation and their job, has to ensure they don't alarm the public.
I have personally spoken to people involved in this research, who are genuinely alarmed by the results of the climate models. Even the average increases in temperature in the models I have seen say that temperature increases of three to five degrees is what we should expect. However, the most alarming aspect of the results is that this will happen far sooner than the conservative predictions the public have been told about thus far.
Now I know that even mentioning Climate Change turns off so many people, even amongst people who claim to be environmentally aware. I know that double glazed look so well. Equally I know that there are still many people who are not prepared to believe that humans can have this effect upon the planet. So while I could post nearly every day about “Global Warming”, I prefer not to totally bore my reader, well just partially bore you.
Well on Monday a study from the highly respected Meteorological office, here in Britain, has found that climate change is happening far quicker than most people would have expected. Not only that, but from the current data temperatures are likely to rise by four degrees (seven in Fahrenheit), by 2060-70.
In the media reports of this study, the media as still not willing to say that the extreme weather events are the result of the damaging human induced climate change that is happening. I have long been predicting that by 2012/13 we will see a sudden and dramatic rise in sea levels. Unfortunately it is likely that it will take a dramatic event like that to shock people and focus the minds on what we need to do.
This prediction is not based upon some desire to be a Cassandra, I genuinely hope that I am wrong, but the science is clear and alarming. Also while some action is being taken to de-carbonise human activity, far to much of what is happening is about reducing the rate of pollution rather than eliminating it. Therefore, while we humans are plodding towards the warmer future, while Climate Change races forward.
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The climate change models are in error. Most estimated that the bad change would come after a century had passed (a sort of 'nimby' attitude for the humans who thought they were too old to have to deal with it.) Surprise. It is under way, it is here NOW, and a lot of the horrible things that are going on in the world are just a small preview of coming attractions.
Does that mean it is too late to stop it? Yes. I suspect that various governments knew that this was irrevocable decades ago. Jimmy Carter was the only world leader who was honest enough to tell anyone, and he was ridiculed for it. And that explains the 'more study needed' attitude of various successors. They were just using delaying tactics and not bothering to tell the truth that our relatively stable climate is now a thing of the past. Possibly we could have done something to slow down the process if we'd listened to Carter but it seems unlikely in retrospect. So get ready for the new Normal. If there is, as I've heard, a time lag between the pollution (cause) and the change in weather (effect)and we are now dealing with the detritus of the 1960s and 70s, there will be much excitement (of the wrong kind) in the future.
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