Sunday, 16 December 2007

Beyond Kyoto and Bali


Just at the start of the Bali conference the BBC interviewed the chief scientific advisor to the white house on climate change. What he said was depressing, as it didn’t bode well for the climate change conference in Bali. What he said was that until the science can say at what level CO2 in the atmosphere was dangerous the US would not be doing anything that might damage the US economy.

When in Bali, Al Gore the former US Vice President, stood up and told the conference that he was ashamed of America. The attitude of the George W Bush government on climate change is shameful, shameful but honest. As the largest polluter the American government should be accepting that the American people need to stop the profligate waste of energy. But it’s only via this gorging of the energy resources that the US Economy makes its money.

The Stand off between the US and Europe created the illusion that Europe was being the good guy. Though the reality is that Europe has failed to meet its Kyoto targets just as much as any other country.

In Britain there is a lot of rhetoric but very little real action. Some action has been taken, promoting wind power, but very little else. We could have banned High Energy light bulbs, but this was consigned to the future.

Even in Europe action on climate change is always to be taken tomorrow and never today.

The problem is that we have thus far failed to see a real global event occur. While localised events are happening and acknowledged as being the result of Climate Change, until something dramatic happens the vast majority of people will not change their behaviour. For example all the protestors and lobbyist that went to Bali would have flown in, adding to CO2 pollution so that they could protest about CO2 pollution.

Personally I think the conference should have been held at the North Pole in summer, and they should not have been allowed back until an agreement on deep cuts was reached, or until the sea ice melted.

Bali and Kyoto before it have focused on the wrong problem. While CO2 is the measured green house gas, and a handy short hand for climate change, pollutants like nitrous oxide and water vapour are even more effective as greenhouse gasses. The whole Kyoto process is based upon the idea of continuing to pollute but slightly less. Its like telling an Alcoholic with impending liver failure that if you cut back on drinking everything will be all right.

There was a time when it looked as if we were going to run out of oil, but technology and new oil finds have extended the amount of available oil well into this century. Add to that the amount of coal globally and we have enough fossil fuel to last us about three hundred years. But if we burnt all that fossil fuel we would change the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere from the current four hundred parts per million to two thousand parts per million.

The seas would be dead as they would be to acid to support life beyond specialised bacteria, temperatures would be twenty to thirty degrees hotter, and mass extinctions will have occurred including Homo sapiens.

The IPCC recognises in its last report that feedback systems are probably in place in our climate but it will not be until we see them happening will we know for sure. The obvious one is the melting of the Sea Ice in the Artic. That is leading to the loss of the Greenland Ice sheet. The rise in seawater will then impact on the Western Antarctic Ice shelf causing this to break up adding to the rising sea levels, as well as affecting the flow of the Amazon River and flooding large areas of the rain forest, possibly killing off the planets lungs. The impacts of all these events would change the Monsoons in Africa and India, causing a severe drought.

In Europe we are already seeing the effect of a changing climate upon our food supplies. The rise in the price of wheat, while helping beleaguered farmers, is a direct result of poorer yields. This is not just a minor blip, but has been occurring for the last few years. In Europe the EU has sold all its stored wheat, as there has not been sufficient production in the past couple of years. This is not just happening in Europe but in America and Russia too.

All this means that climate change is already having an effect upon food supplies. So far all that most people will have noticed is an increase the price of food. In coming years we will see this effect exacerbated. Eventually there will be shortages of foods, especially for the poor.

We are facing stark choices, we cannot continue to burn fossil fuels and expect to have a planet fit to live on.

What is needed is leadership from and by America on climate change. What George W, or more realistically who ever replaces him, needs to announce the equivalent of the space race for tackling climate change. This must not just be for the benefit of the US but for the whole of humanity. Further this needs to involve all the countries and peoples of the planet. That way the US will no longer be seen as an arrogant imperialistic state it has become, but as part of the solution in helping to heal the planet.







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