Americas Bali Road Map to Inaction

The day after agreeing to the Bali Road Map for tackling Climate Change, America and especially the White House started backing off from the agreement. My reaction to that was one of puzzlement. If the US government didn’t agree with or want to be a part of the solution then why sign up?

Further, during the extension of the negotiations it did look as though the US were going to block an agreement. It became clear that the US was isolated and while on minor details America did have its supporters, the overwhelming feeling was that the US were trying to prevent agreement.

Then something rather curious happened. The Dutch Diplomat and Chief negotiator, Yvo De Boer came to the podium and after deigning that the secretariat had been involved in secret and separate talks he broke down and was lead off stage in tears.

Then the most curious aspect was that all of a sudden Paula Dobrianski under secretary of state and the US representative, said that America would join in and follow the majority, that’s the rest of the world as the US were indeed isolated.

I can now report what actually happened. The US had no intention of signing up to any agreement on climate change, well nothing that would be meaningful of effective. Further, in Bali the US were effectively trying to scupper any agreement by holding secret talks with other nations. It was only when the US were discovered doing this that the American delegation agreed to sign up to the Bali Road Map. That is why the Bush administration is calling foul and trying to avoid its responsibility.

The reality is that the US under Bush will do nothing to curb CO2 or take climate change seriously. While the US Government is saying that Climate Change is real it is doing so reluctantly. Additionally, while Americans are the greatest polluters of our planet, even the very weak energy bill that the president has just signed into law is woefully weak. Even the Chinese are implementing measures that are more effective than the US.

I suspect that the US is attempting to create the illusion of tackling the problem, while in reality it will be business as usual. Eventually this inaction by American will end up causing America real pain.

One of the conundrums of climate change is the simple fact that as the planet is warming more water vapour has been released into the atmosphere. As has been shown with Hurricane Katrina and the flooding that occurred in the UK this year, eventually that water will fall as rain. Further, the atmosphere has been retaining more water vapour than any of the computer models were ever predicting. Apart from the fact that this is speeding up the warming of the planet, current thinking is that at some point in the Weather/Climate cycle most of this extra moisture will be released in sudden and violent downpours. Not in areas normally affected by flooding but in places that monsoon type rains would not normally happen. Therefore just on the basis of landmass, America will be hard hit. It is just an event that the models are predicting like the snowstorms that have hit America. The inaction of the Bush government is impacting the population of America.

Old Friends and New Beginnings

When I was younger and worked in the photographic industry, I worked for a company that carried out the photo processing services for The British Antarctic Survey. Via this work as well as getting to see many amazing images, I got to know a couple of the scientists who lived in this frozen wilderness. There were times when talking to these people when I really did think that in their hands that part of the planet was safe.

However as can happen, I lost touch. Then in the last couple of months something remarkable happened, the husband of one of the people I knew then, recognised my descriptions of watching badgers in Epping Forest, and realised who I am. So he emailed me.

Yesterday, I had a rather nice lunch with her and as well as catching up on what has happened in our lives but it also emerges that she was in Bali for the Climate Change conference. One interesting fact that I gleaned was that one of the NGOs were making a “Fossil of the Day” award to the delegate who was being most obstructive. I wonder what country won that one?

One important commitment we made, apart from a commitment to stay in touch, was that she is going to take me whale watching, she is involved in a project monitoring citations. So I will have to get my sea legs out of the cupboard.

While it was great to catch up with an old friend, it was also disheartening to hear just how much the climate is affecting the habitat that is Antarctica.

Although I am looking forward and I was able to run my current idea past her. I have been thinking of trying to record some of the sounds of the wildlife that I encounter. One of the aspects of watching wildlife that people, who do their nature watching from an armchair, is just how much noise animals can make. Often when out watching, or trying to watch is a more accurate description, the badgers I have a symphony of sounds around me. Owls calling, the sounds of the badgers snuffling in the earth, even mice and voles make sounds as they are moving about. Thus, I have been looking at recording some of the sounds.

However, I just didn’t know how to do it. Therefore, I went to another friend to learn what I would need to do. I discover that it need not be that expensive either. Therefore I have already started obtaining some of the equipment I will need. While this will not be happening just yet, I am thinking of producing a monthly Podcast with news and stuff regarding Natural History and Wildlife watching. My friend said that she was willing to be interviewed for one or two of them.

So while I thought this last year had been busy, I guess that I will be kept even busier in the coming year.

Beyond Kyoto and Bali

Just at the start of the Bali conference the BBC interviewed the chief scientific advisor to the white house on climate change. What he said was depressing, as it didn’t bode well for the climate change conference in Bali. What he said was that until the science can say at what level CO2 in the atmosphere was dangerous the US would not be doing anything that might damage the US economy.

When in Bali, Al Gore the former US Vice President, stood up and told the conference that he was ashamed of America. The attitude of the George W Bush government on climate change is shameful, shameful but honest. As the largest polluter the American government should be accepting that the American people need to stop the profligate waste of energy. But it’s only via this gorging of the energy resources that the US Economy makes its money.

The Stand off between the US and Europe created the illusion that Europe was being the good guy. Though the reality is that Europe has failed to meet its Kyoto targets just as much as any other country.

In Britain there is a lot of rhetoric but very little real action. Some action has been taken, promoting wind power, but very little else. We could have banned High Energy light bulbs, but this was consigned to the future.

Even in Europe action on climate change is always to be taken tomorrow and never today.

The problem is that we have thus far failed to see a real global event occur. While localised events are happening and acknowledged as being the result of Climate Change, until something dramatic happens the vast majority of people will not change their behaviour. For example all the protestors and lobbyist that went to Bali would have flown in, adding to CO2 pollution so that they could protest about CO2 pollution.

Personally I think the conference should have been held at the North Pole in summer, and they should not have been allowed back until an agreement on deep cuts was reached, or until the sea ice melted.

Bali and Kyoto before it have focused on the wrong problem. While CO2 is the measured green house gas, and a handy short hand for climate change, pollutants like nitrous oxide and water vapour are even more effective as greenhouse gasses. The whole Kyoto process is based upon the idea of continuing to pollute but slightly less. Its like telling an Alcoholic with impending liver failure that if you cut back on drinking everything will be all right.

There was a time when it looked as if we were going to run out of oil, but technology and new oil finds have extended the amount of available oil well into this century. Add to that the amount of coal globally and we have enough fossil fuel to last us about three hundred years. But if we burnt all that fossil fuel we would change the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere from the current four hundred parts per million to two thousand parts per million.

The seas would be dead as they would be to acid to support life beyond specialised bacteria, temperatures would be twenty to thirty degrees hotter, and mass extinctions will have occurred including Homo sapiens.

The IPCC recognises in its last report that feedback systems are probably in place in our climate but it will not be until we see them happening will we know for sure. The obvious one is the melting of the Sea Ice in the Artic. That is leading to the loss of the Greenland Ice sheet. The rise in seawater will then impact on the Western Antarctic Ice shelf causing this to break up adding to the rising sea levels, as well as affecting the flow of the Amazon River and flooding large areas of the rain forest, possibly killing off the planets lungs. The impacts of all these events would change the Monsoons in Africa and India, causing a severe drought.

In Europe we are already seeing the effect of a changing climate upon our food supplies. The rise in the price of wheat, while helping beleaguered farmers, is a direct result of poorer yields. This is not just a minor blip, but has been occurring for the last few years. In Europe the EU has sold all its stored wheat, as there has not been sufficient production in the past couple of years. This is not just happening in Europe but in America and Russia too.

All this means that climate change is already having an effect upon food supplies. So far all that most people will have noticed is an increase the price of food. In coming years we will see this effect exacerbated. Eventually there will be shortages of foods, especially for the poor.

We are facing stark choices, we cannot continue to burn fossil fuels and expect to have a planet fit to live on.

What is needed is leadership from and by America on climate change. What George W, or more realistically who ever replaces him, needs to announce the equivalent of the space race for tackling climate change. This must not just be for the benefit of the US but for the whole of humanity. Further this needs to involve all the countries and peoples of the planet. That way the US will no longer be seen as an arrogant imperialistic state it has become, but as part of the solution in helping to heal the planet.